Thom Hogan has a prescient blog entry dated from December where he mulls the future of the digital camera industry. So far, one month later, his predictions seem remarkably on the mark: http://www.bythom.com/2006predictions.htm
This link comes via Mike Johnston's TheOnlinePhotographer blog, which is also a definite must-read. I've been a fan of Mike's work ever since his magazine articles and his short lived 37th Frame newsletter.
Playing with crystal balls has only an advantage, it the prediction success you will be credited for, or at least it can be claimed; if not, nobody cares in the prophets and home analysts era.
Anyway his points sounds quite reasonable.
I liked his "if I was in charge of a DSLR maker" on the sidebar...
Dirk